2011-2013
Subtheme 1.1: Global Food and Natural Resources: Strategies and Policies for Adapting to Global Change (GRP 38)
Centers/ProgramsIFPRI
Target RegionsAsia, LAC, SSA
Countries of Planned Research Potential Beneficiary Countries
 
Ethiopia, India, Senegal, South Africa
 
Ethiopia, India, Senegal, South Africa
CGIAR Priorities
2A - Maintaining and enhancing yield potential of food staples
2B - Tolerance to selected abiotic stresses
4A - Integrated land, water and forest management and landscape level
4C - Improving water productivity
5D - Improving research and development options to reduce rural poverty and vulnerability
Financing Sources
Members: ADB, Australia, Germany, IFAD, United States, World Bank

Non Members: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, CARE, Generation/CP, Indiana University, International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Iowa State University, Leibniz Centre for Agriculture Landscape Research, Mars, Inc., Netherlands Environmental Assembly, Others, Oxford University, University of California, University of Copenhagen, Unres+Other Sources
Project Overview and Rationale

This research project supports IFPRI’s mandate, under research Theme 1 to issue periodic reports on the global food situation and outlook and to monitor progress on internationally agreed-upon food security targets, based on projections generated from policy models or other appropriate tools. In addition, this project also undertakes a broader range of scenario-based assessments of food and natural resource security (often to assess the potential synergies and tradeoffs between them) that reflect the compound impacts of multiple drivers of change. A closer integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial analysis, economic evaluation of technology generation, diffusion and use, and coupled modeling of production systems, land use change, and ecosystem service provision—all support the assessment of medium and long-term scenarios of change in global climate, water cycles, and land productivity, coupled with potential intervention and adaptation options. The common goal of all the project research is to generate new knowledge on institutional, policy, and investment strategies that might best accelerate and maintain environmentally-sustainable, pro-poor growth. 

Project Outputs
Output Title
1: Critical and quantitative evaluation of the key drivers of change and uncertainty in global food systems, and development of plausible future scenarios that encompass the evolution of various driving forces and their impact on food and nutrition (three years).
Output Description
The activities which fall under this are those which take a forward-looking approach to changes in global economic and environmental change, and its impacts on food systems and supporting ecosystems. The long-term outlook studies which have been published under the Vision 2020 program, are examples of the activities that fall under this output. All of our current biofuels work, falls under this category, as well as the current projects which look at climate change adaptation. The HarvestChoice project will take into account forward-looking quantification of drivers relevant to a variety of crop production systems, so as to examine the human well-being impacts. All of our recent work on understanding the determinants of high food prices, and future outlooks for market prices, also falls under this. Given the long history of IFPRI in providing forward-looking outlooks for major commodity crops of the CGIAR, and linking them to key issues of socioeconomic and environmental change, the comparative advantage for doing this work lies squarely in the domain of this project team.
CGIAR Priorities
5B, 5D
Countries of Planned Research
Ethiopia, India, Senegal, South Africa
Intended Users
Policy research and multilateral bodies interested in the linkages between energy, water and food –especially in the context of biofuels. Key policy and science networks are CCAFS, FANRPAN, ASARECA, GFAR, and CGIAR. National and international agencies engaged in the administration of agricultural policy and aid (World Bank, FAO, IFAD, WFP, USAID, Canadian International Development Agency, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture). Donor communities interested to know where to invest resources (Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Packard Foundation, Energy Foundation). Policymakers, analysts, and researchers in national and regional institutions in developing countries. Members of the media.
Outcome
Researchers and policymakers have an increased understanding of the interlinkages among the major drivers of importance for food security, and the role of uncertainties in shaping future food outcomes. Decisionmakers will use these insights in shaping policies and programs to improve the effectiveness of rural development strategies, particularly for poor and vulnerable populations. An improved understanding of the relative distribution and magnitude of production risks for the poor and the potential technology opportunities to mitigate them. Users will also have an enhanced ability to prioritize and target productivity-focused investments that benefit the poor across continents, commodities, agro-ecological zones, constraints, technologies, and target populations. Better-targeted donor investments. Improved research and development options on global change. Better-designed biofuels programs lead to less competition in land between food and fuel, better food storage policies, and stronger social protection. Users develop an improved understanding of the road ahead for the world’s food and nutrition situation, and have an enhanced ability to take action in appropriate areas.
Impact
Reduced rural poverty, malnutrition, and vulnerability to global economic and environmental change. Lower volatility in food prices."

Output Target
Year Target Type Target Description
2010
Policy strategies
Empirical results developed from climate change work, with indications of appropriate technologies to mitigate impacts.
2010
Policy strategies
Regional (bio)technology scenarios for focus countries and commodities in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia formulated by stakeholders.
2011
Policy strategies
Further empirical results developed from biofuels and climate change work, with indications of appropriate technologies and policies to mitigate negative impacts and create positive synergies.
2011
Policy strategies
Regionally-specific scenarios of agricultural growth, technology adoption, energy use, and environmental change for focus countries and commodities in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia relevant to interests and concerns of stakeholders.
2011
Policy strategies
Specific recommendations and investment requirements for climate adaptation and agricultural investment.

Output Title
2: Development of an enhanced and interlinked set of data and quantitative tools, which include spatial databases, detailed mapping of food system characteristics and human welfare, and a detailed characterization of the impacts of changes and uncertainty in the state of natural resources on global food systems (three years).
Output Description
The activities which fall under this are those which build on existing, but often disparate and incompatible databases of bio-physical characteristics relevant to agricultural production (soil, water, topography, climate, etc), as well as socioeconomic data—in order to build a consistent and robust knowledge base upon which the analysis of global economic and environmental change and its impacts on food systems and supporting ecosystems can be evaluated. Many of the activities which fall under the HarvestChoice program undertake this kind of task, and constitute a valuable body of knowledge that will be widely disseminated through web-based interfaces and other appropriate visualization tools. The excellent track record that has been created by IFPRI in providing detailed spatial maps of the global distribution of key commodities, through GIS analysis, is an example of the kinds of knowledge support systems that this project team has comparative advantage in creating.  
CGIAR Priorities
1A, 2A
Countries of Planned Research
n/a
Intended Users
Researchers in the CGIAR, universities, ARIs, and developing-country institutes. Policy analysts engaged in food and agriculture. Agricultural research and development donors/investors. Global change research organizations and networks. Key processes/science networks include: IPCC, CCAFS, FANRPAN, ASARECA, SAKSS, NEPAD-CAADP.
Outcome
Policy and investment analysts use insights gained from enhanced decision support tools for more informed decisionmaking and investments in the areas of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology, and pro-poor rural development strategies for vulnerable groups. Qualitatively improved policy communication and impact as a result of improved decision and knowledge support tools at the disposal of government and policy bodies. Analysts and researchers better informed of cutting-edge datasets and methods to undertake policy and investment analyses and to direct additional research efforts. Increasing use by other analysts and researchers of data, methods, and models.
Impact
Improved research and development information on global change lead to reduced rural poverty."

Output Target
Year Target Type Target Description
2010
Practices
Improved representation of land use change within agriculture and trade-offs with non-agricultural land developed.
2010
Practices
Improved understanding of distribution of biofuel potential globally.
2010
Practices
Working version of crop production surfaces to model biophysical responses to environmental change developed.
2011
Practices
Enhanced working version of crop production surfaces to model biophysical responses to environmental change developed.
2011
Practices
Improved representation of land use change within agriculture and trade-offs with nonagricultural land developed.
2011
Practices
Improved understanding of distribution of biofuel potential globally.

Output Title
3: Development of a wide range of policy options and possible technological and institutional interventions that can be tailored to fit the specific regional, national, or sub-national problems, issues, or opportunities that are identified (3 years).
Output Description
The activities which fall under this take the results that are generated from scenario-based changes in global economic and environmental conditions, and draw specific inferences for policy intervention or technological investment, so that the impacts on the functioning of food systems and human welfare are minimized. All of the recommendations that come from our current biofuels work are of this nature, as well as those which will come from the ongoing projects on climate change adaptation. The project which evaluates policy interventions and investments from a gender perspective will also embody these qualities very strongly, and all of the main conclusions from the HarvestChoice project will also have this dimension. Similarly, our recent work on drivers of high food prices are already generating key policy recommendations and options, and this will continue with other ongoing projects of technology assessment and evaluation of alternative outcomes for food systems. The long-standing nature of IFPRI’s work in providing medium- to long-term outlooks of food system outcomes, and their implications for investment and policy intervention, gives this program a comparative advantage in doing this kind of work. The Vision 2020 publications derived from IMPACT modeling results, are a good example of this.
CGIAR Priorities
5A, 5D
Countries of Planned Research
Ethiopia, India, Senegal, South Africa
Intended Users
Sister CG centers, the general public, donors, governments, international assessments related to agriculture. Policy analysts engaged in food and agriculture. Agricultural research and development donors/investors. Global change research organizations and networks. Key processes/science networks include: IPCC, NEPAD-CAADP, and CCAFS. Policy analysts working within the regional SAKSS nodes.
Outcome
Researchers apply decision-support tools developed for more informed decisionmaking, policy reform, and investment. Better evaluated options available to stakeholders for strategic, technological, and institutional interventions. Analysts and researchers better informed of cutting-edge policy and investment analyses and better able to direct additional research efforts. Increasing utilization by other researchers, analysts, and decisionmakers of data, methods, and analytical outputs (generated by this subtheme). Enhanced analytical capabilities of regional scientists and an expanded set of analyzed policy options to consider. Better-targeted policy interventions and targeted investments lead to more effective increases in crop production. Improved understanding of how to avoid policy distortions.
Impact
Lower land degradation and enhanced food security. Better designed biofuel policies lead to less adverse effects on food security and environmental quality. Less interference with market dynamics and slower changes in food prices and better producer incentives. Reduced environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions, and higher ecosystem quality."

Output Target
Year Target Type Target Description
2010
Policy strategies
Economic evaluations to inform the scientific and development communities of the potential impact of crop (bio-)technologies on productivity, nutrition, and hunger for the SSA, South Asia, and the developing world completed.
2011
Policy strategies
Economic evaluations of the potential impact of crop (bio-)technologies on productivity, nutrition, and hunger for the Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the developing world completed.

Note: Financial Tables, Target Regions, CGIAR Priorities and Financing Sources show aggregated data for more than one MTP project and in particular for: - Subtheme 1.2: Climate Change (GRP 43) - Subtheme 2.1: Globalization and Markets (GRP 2)


Allocation of Member, Non-Member Grants and other sources to projects, 2009-2011
in $millions

Project Member Actual
2009
Estimated
2010
Proposal
2011
Project Total
2.466
4.200
4.339
Theme 1: Outlooks and Global ChangeMemberADB
0.044
0.000
0.000
Australia
0.000
0.018
0.000
Germany
0.000
0.121
0.105
IFAD
0.128
0.000
0.000
United States
0.175
0.479
0.280
World Bank
0.196
0.014
0.000
Non MemberBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
1.350
1.916
1.577
CARE
0.000
0.117
0.000
Generation/CP
0.106
0.065
0.000
Indiana University
0.064
0.000
0.000
International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council
0.005
0.000
0.000
Iowa State University
0.007
0.009
0.000
Leibniz Centre for Agriculture Landscape Research
0.001
0.000
0.000
Mars, Inc.
0.001
0.000
0.000
Netherlands Environmental Assembly
0.025
0.035
0.000
Others
0.008
0.000
0.000
Oxford University
0.004
0.000
0.000
University of California
0.000
0.080
0.000
University of Copenhagen
0.000
0.265
1.317
Unres+Other SourcesUnres+Other Sources
0.352
1.081
1.060


Allocation of Project Costs to CGIAR Priorities, 2009-2013
in $millions

Project Actual
2009
Estimated
2010
Proposal
2011
Plan 1
2012
Plan 2
2013
Priorities
Theme 1: Outlooks and Global Change
Project Total
2.466
4.200
4.339
4.513
4.693
2A
0.185
0.315
0.325
0.338
0.352
2B
0.185
0.315
0.325
0.338
0.352
4A
0.493
0.840
0.868
0.903
0.939
4C
0.493
0.840
0.868
0.903
0.939
5D
1.110
1.890
1.953
2.031
2.111


Project investment by developing Region, 2009-2013
in $millions

Project Target Regions Actual
2009
Estimated
2010
Proposal
2011
Plan 1
2012
Plan 2
2013
Project Total
2.466
4.200
4.339
4.513
4.693
Theme 1: Outlooks and Global ChangeAsia
0.567
0.966
0.998
1.038
1.079
LAC
0.173
0.294
0.304
0.316
0.329
SSA
1.726
2.940
3.037
3.159
3.285